Individual Impact of Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gross Domestic Product, and Unemployment Rate on Plastic Surgery Volumes
It is widely held that U.S. economy performance influences plastic surgery volumes. By comparing Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and unemployment rate with ASPS plastic surgery volumes we aim to show a statistical correlation between economic performance and plastic surgery volumes.
Methods/Technique:
The ASPS member-only volume data published from 1998 to 2010 was collected into a single database along with the year-end DJIA, GDP, and unemployment rates. Linear regression was used to model the individual relationships between the year-end percent change of the economic indicators versus population adjusted percent change in plastic surgery volumes. A Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (“r”) was generated for each relationship to express the strength of the linear relationship between the two variables.
Results/Complications:
Mastopexy, breast augmentation, blepharoplasty, and abdominoplasty demonstrated moderate to strong positive correlation to DJIA and GDP with simultaneous negative correlation to unemployment rate. All cosmetic procedures displayed a consistent negative correlation to unemployment rate. Breast reconstruction correlated positively with unemployment rate, and inversely to DJIA and GDP. Facelift correlated only with DJIA and did not reach significance with GDP or unemployment rate, and rhinoplasty showed only a weak correlation with GDP and unemployment rate.
Conclusion:
In a weak economy, the differential volume of procedures reflects the economic resilience of the underlying patient subset. Mastopexy and breast augmentation are the procedures most affected, blepharoplasty and abdominoplasty are influenced to a lesser extent but more evenly across the economic indicators. Facelift and rhinoplasty are least impacted, reflecting greater disposable income or longer term planning in this patient subset. The inverse relationship of breast reconstruction volume to economic performance, likely signals practice shifts to supplement declining cosmetic volumes. Though limited by only thirteen years of data, our analysis confirms that macroeconomic health has distinctive correlation to the volumes of plastic surgery procedures.